Thursday, February 10, 2011

Actress in a Leading Role: Who Will it Be?

The Oscars. The annual awards ceremony for the most prestigious and influential actors of the year. I normally don't give a hoot on trying to figure out who is going to win the Oscar in each category. I like the surprise. But this time I actually got to experience doing an Oscar investigation on Twitter.

Out of all of the award categories, I decided to specifically look into who will win the Best Leading Actress. And the nominees are:

  • Annette Bening—"The Kids Are All Right"
  • Nicole Kidman—"Rabbit Hole"
  • Jennifer Lawrence—"Winter's Bone"
  • Natalie Portman—"Black Swan"
  • Michelle Williams—"Blue Valentine"
On Twitter, I did searches for each nominee using keywords like their name, "oscars", and "win". After looking at the activity on each actress I have come to an overall prediction. Natalie Portman will win the Oscar. How do I know this? Let me run through what I found when I searched these actresses on Twitter.

When I entered Annette Bening into the search bar I found 2 tweets that said she should win an Oscar, 1 tweet said that she won't, and the rest spoke of how Bening was going to vote for herself to win the Oscar. There doesn't seem to be much of a positive buzz on this actress so I figured that she isn't a favorite to win.

Nicole Kidman's search was a little more positive. There were more tweets congratulating her performance in "Rabbit Hole" and more people hoped to see her win the Oscar. However, there were more tweets on what she was going to wear rather than if people thought she was going to win. I think that she is one of the favorites to win, but as I continued with my results, I don't think she will.

The few tweets on Jennifer Lawrence spoke of how good "Winter's Bone" was and how well Jennifer Lawrence played her part. A couple of people were happy that she was nominated because they liked her performance and actually wanted to see her win the Oscar. However, the other tweets that popped up were quotes on how Jennifer Bening didn't expect to win. And personally, I don't expect her to win either. There was a very low number of tweets that were about her winning. This makes me think that people are focusing their votes on someone else even though she may have done a good job.

Michelle Williams does not have a chance to win the Oscar. Why? Because there was only 1 result saying that she should win and the other one said that her co-star Ryan Gossling out-shined her. So, she is the nominee that I am going to have to rule out of the winning circle.

And finally, we have my prediction and my favorite to win: Natalie Portman. It is extremely obvious that Natalie Portman is the fan favorite. When I searched "Natalie Portman win" almost every tweet said that her performance was immaculate and brilliant. There weren't any negative comments whatsoever. The general consensus was that she should win the Oscar and I agree.

Not only has Natalie Portman been in the acting game longer than some of her co-nominees, but her general spirit and kind personality makes people swoon over her.

I never thought that using a social media could really give so many clues as to who will get the majority of the votes. It's awesome to be able to have this available to me just in case I'm curious and want to know ahead of time. But in the future, I prefer to have my favorite and leave the reveal until the big night. It's more fun that way!

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